Sunday, December 4, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 4th, 2011 Sunday


Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch


Tonight’s Sunday night matchup between the Saints and Lions could end up being a much closer track meet than what saw last Monday between the Saints and Giants. Matthew Stafford has shown this season he has the talent to run with the big dogs, but he’s also got the horses. The Saints are 27th against the pass and could have a lot of matchup problems with some of the Lions big targets. I like Stafford to break out of his funk and play well on the road.

The Cowboys have been rolling along the past several weeks and a big reason has been the consistent play of quarterback Tony Romo. On the road today, he’ll have a chance to continue his winning ways and solid play when the Cowboys meet the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cards rank 25th against the pass and allow more than 250 yards in the air; Romo should be solid today.

Despite the notion that “he can’t” I would suggest sticking with your instincts and keep Tebow in your lineup. He’s on the road today to take on Minnesota, and while the Broncos have been predominantly a running team, I expect to see a few more balls in the air. This could be the week where we see more of Tebow the passer and not just Tebow the playmaker. Either way facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense could mean for a big game for Tebow.

Who to Avoid

It looks like Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (game-time decision) is sitting on the fence and with AJ Feeley taking first team snaps this week in practice, this could be a situation well worth avoiding all together. The Rams are on the road today and face a daunting task when they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Cardinals Beanie Wells is coming off a career game, so the tendency is to stick him in your line-up. While the Cowboys have not been stout versus the run, they have good speed on the defensive side and could be playing most of this game from out front. Wells will become less of a factor if the Cards have to play catchup; Wells could be risky so you may want to look at better options if available.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”


I stepped away for a while, but today I am feeling good about quite a few players, so let’s take another shot at our four riders for week 13;

Matthew Stafford; the kid has been struggling some, but I look for a bounce back performance tonight against a Saint team that will have to bring pressure and could leave a few Lions in single coverage. Stafford should go for a nifty 300 with at least two touchdowns tonight.

Reggie Bush; if you play PPR then this is your man for Sundya. Taking on the Raiders, Bush should be the focus out of the backfield and in space. The Raiders run defense is ranked 27th and will have trouble slowing down Bush; he’s also a threat to grab a number of passes out of the backfield. I expect at least 125 yards of total offense with 4-5 grabs and a trip to the end-zone.

Brandon Lloyd; despite the possible change at quarterback today, I still like Lloyd. He is the Rams best weapon and whether it’s Feeley or Bradford, he’ll see more than his share of targets; averaging double-digits since becoming a Ram. The 49ers boast a stingy defense, but they do surrender over 240 yards per game and have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I expect Lloyd to grab a number of passes with at least one trip to the end-zone.

Aaron Hernandez; The Colts are well of aware of the Patriots tight ends, but they won’t be able to cover both. Gronkowski has been the focus over recent weeks, but with Hernandez coming off consecutive seven target games I expect to see Brady look his way a little more often this Sunday. Hernandez has not a big game since week one, but could turn in a huge day today against the Colts; six catches, 85 yards and a score.