SUNDAY PICKS

November 22nd, 2015
Sunday, Week 11

Sunday Picks: Who to watch, play, and avoid

If you play season long fantasy, it's time for the stretch run and time for your fantasy team to start hitting it's stride. 

It has been a tumultuous season at best with so many significant injuries to many of the leagues best players. And like NFL football, fantasy football is a season-long battle of attrition and it's not how you start, but how you finish.

As we enter week 11, it's time to gear up for the post season and no time to be giving away any weeks; wins are now at a premium.

As always, looking up and down the slate, there are players to watch, plays to avoid, and must-starts.

Who-to-watch

RBs-Ronnie Hillman & CJ Anderson-DEN
With the Broncos going with quarterback Brock Osweiler today versus the Bears, it will be interesting to see how the running game gets going. Osweiler enables Kubiak to employ the type of offense he prefers to run which relies on the running game. Both Hillman and Anderson have shown they can have success carrying the ball . With the full compliment of the playbook, keep an eye on one of these two backs to finally get the Broncos running attack rolling.

Must-Start

TE-Eric Ebron, DET
The Raiders defense has been awful versus tightends this season, with only the Saints defense being worse. This season the Raiders have allowed a league leading 10 touchdowns to the tight end. Since week 7 Ebron is a top 15-tight end in receptions and yards; today versus the Raiders he's primed to move up the ladder. Start him.

WR-Michael Crabtree, OAK
With rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper drawing much praise and attention, quietly Crabtree has become a fantasy stud over the past several weeks. Last week was one of his more quiet Sundays, but since week 7 Crabtree has 24 receptions, 328 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns, ranking in the top 10 among wide receivers. Start him.


Who-to-Avoid

QB-Jameis Winston, TB
The rookie quarterback has been pretty consistent this season for fantasy owners, but with a tough road matchup in week 11 versus the Eagles defense, this is no time to take any unnecessary risks. Winston is coming off a rough outing versus the Cowboys in week 10 and today he faces an Eagles defense that ranks 5th in the league with 12 picks and ranks 12th best (allowing points) versus quarterbacks. Winston is going to have great Sundays ahead of him, but today may not be one of them. Sit him.

That's my take.

~David G Ortega

SUNDAY: TWO MINUTE WARNING

November 8th, 2015
Sunday, Week 9

Sunday: Two-Minute Warning

I rarely get into the defensive side of fantasy, especially team defenses, but after last week's impressive display against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers I have to mention the Broncos defense.

Dominant last week, their play alone helped secure a needed win in one of my season long leagues. And the most impressive part was not the three sacks, 10 points allowed, and the safety, but rather the opponent they shut down. They have to be looked at as one of the top three and must plays in every format, every week.

This week should be no different facing a similar style quarterback that has athleticism and mobility and strong arm, but the Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has not been playing well. And while he has the ability to evade pressure in the pocket, he makes a lot of his plays from the pocket (which could play right into the Broncos wheelhouse).

Another defense worth riding today; facing a depleted and struggling Niners offense the Falcons defense is primed to put up solid numbers. The Niners offense is near the bottom and have allowed the 4th most sacks this season (28 sacks allowed); and at a great value in DFS, the Falcons defense should be in many of your lineups today.

Some other quick nuggets for Sunday;

I like Ben Roethlisberger to have a big passing day against the Raiders today; look for Martavis Bryant to see some downfield looks.

I like what we are seeing from Drew Brees and today could be another solid Sunday for wide receiver Brandin Cooks (12 receptions in his last two games).

A Sunday sleeper could be the Broncos running back CJ Anderson. Last week he ran very well and looked real comfortable in the backfield. He should also see some week in the pass game.

That's my take.

~David G

WEEK 8: SUNDAY MORNING LOVE

November 1st, 2015
Sunday, Week 8

Sunday Morning Love

[early morning edition]
With the kickoff for the early morning London contest between the Chiefs and Lions only 20 minutes away, a couple of quick shouts;

I am loving me some Calvin Johnson this morning against a very weak and susceptible Chiefs secondary. Megatron has yet to fulfill his early draft expectations, but today owners may just reap some of those rewards. Facing a secondary that allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the most touchdowns (12 in 8 games), Johnson is in line for a big day.

On the other side, the Lions secondary also struggle having allowed the second most pass plays of 20 or more yards this seasons with 32. Expect quarterback Alex Smith to look for his go-to weapon in wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is a solid start today in season long leagues and DFS. With 39 receptions for 561 yards this season, the Chiefs wideout is a reliable week 8 start. Get him in if you can.

That's my take for the early game.

~David G

WEEK 7: SUNDAY FAVES

October 24th, 2015
Sunday (Week 7)

Week 7: Sunday Favorites

I've been playing a lot of DFS lately and not because my season long teams are in the tank, to the contrary I play in four season long and like the looks of three (my fourth is a work in progress due to injuries).

I am following my standard plays in the season long leagues; play your studs and start your starters, but in DFS I am trying to swing for the fences.

Going through the schedule, here are a few of the picks I am liking this Sunday;

Over in London in the Bills-Jaguars matchup, I am on board with Julius Thomas coming off a strong week six performance. The Bills have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and are tied with allowing the 7th most receptions. Thomas was targeted 13 times last week, so he should see his fair-share of work this Sunday.

In the Vikings-Lions matchup, rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a reliable pass-catcher in the Vikings passing game in the teams last three games. Over that span Diggs has hauled in 13 passes on 19 targets for 216 yards. He's yet to have a big fantasy day, but facing the Lions secondary that has been riddled for the 4th most receiving yards and ranks 9th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts, this week it could happen.

Lastly, in the Browns-Rams game on Sunday, you have to love this matchup for rookie running Todd Gurley. He's had back-to-back solid games toting the rock 49 times for 305 yards. Tomorrow he faces the Browns run defense that has allowed a league leading 887 yards rushing this season and surrenders over 5.1 yards per carry. Gurley has looked solid the last two weeks and has to be licking his chops for Sunday's home matchup. I will have him in my lineups up and down the boards.

These are just a few of my favorites for Sunday.

That's my take.

~David G

WEEK 6: MY SUNDAY PICKS

October 18th, 2015
Sunday (Week 6)

Week 6: My Sunday Picks

I had a good week last week in my season long PPR leagues, Texans running backs Arian Foster and Steelers Le'Veon Bell carried several of my teams with solid performances. My hat also goes off to Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (starting to right the ship in Philly) and my waiver wire pick up last week, Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. Both played very well and assisted my teams with a couple of wins in week 5.

Now my DFS lineups were a different story last week. As I do every week, digging for gold and looking for those diamonds in the rough, several players in a quite a few of my lineups just didn't pan out. Such is the weekly conundrum.

This Fantasy week looks to be no easier than any other which is often the case, but just like last week (and any other for that matter) it has its' attractive offers for Sunday. So who am I looking at, who do I like today? Well I'll tell you.

My Sunday Picks:

For my season long lineups, I suffered the loss of Jamaal Charles last week (like many other owners), and with no luck this week on the waiver wire I am shooting for the fence with my back up Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman. It's a risk, yes, but if he can get double digit touches in this favorable matchup agains the Browns 32nd ranked run defense (allowing 147 yards rushing per game) and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

And while I am reading that Niners tight end Vernon Davis is ready for a big game today against the Ravens, I am going to roll with a more consistent play; Barnidge versus the Broncos today. It's not the best matchup for the Browns tight end, but he's quickly become a favorite target in the passing game with 20 receptions on 26 targets the last three weeks.

For the DFS plays, I have two picks I am coddling in several lineups; Vikings rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Giants wideout Dwayne Harris. 

I had a chance to watch the majority the Vikings week 4 game (on bye in week 5) versus the Broncos. Diggs was quite impressive matched up against one of the leagues very best secondary; he caught 6 of 10 passes for 87 yards. He looked very sharp, a smooth runner with soft hands. He's no Jerry Rice, but he did look like he has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. What I liked most was his 10 targets; 4 or 5 passes and he's risky, but 10 targets and he is someone the quarterback trusts. His low value could make him an excellent play today.

Now Dwayne Harris is a bit more risky with a Monday night game. The reports indicate that wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, even if he plays could be limited (possibly more of a decoy in the pass game). If thats the case, Harris' stock has to be on the rise. In his last two games he's been very involed in the pass game with 11 receptions, including a touchdown on 14 targets. No ODJ or a limited ODJ means more looks for Harris and possibly a very nice Monday night stat line; at his value on DFS he's another week 6 diamond in the rough. Just for note, no ODJ could also mean more involvement for running back Shane Vereen, who I also like as a flex in DFS.

These are some of my picks for Sunday.

Just my take.

~David G

WEEK 5: BUYING AND SELLING

October 11th, 2015
Sunday (NFL Week 5)

Week 5: Buying and Selling

Four weeks into the season should be plenty of sample size to figure a few things out for your Sunday fantasy football lineup, but that doesn't mean you should rest on your laurels.

You did a pretty good job drafting this year and after four weeks you're sitting in a pretty good spot, so now's the time to use your fantasy savvy to make a few tweaks and improve your championship run.

Through the first four weeks we've seen enough to know when it's time to let someone go and move on and when it's time to find value.

These are my week 5 buys and sells;

I am buying into Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 1,187 yards passing and 9 touchdowns are enough for me to believe he's a reliable play week-in and week-out. Not only is the Red Rifle producing on the offensive side, but he's only thrown one interception in 116 attempts this season. Today may be a stiff test at home against the Seahawks, but I still believe Dalton finishes as a QB1 today.

I am also buying into running back Dion Lewis of the Patriots. Remember a running back by the name of Shane Vereen. Lewis has inherited that role as the teams lead back in the passing game and averaging 10 carries per game through the teams first three games is a great indicator he's a safe weekly play. He's also dominating the backfield with 154 offensive snaps this season, putting him on the field two-thirds of the time. Today's matchup against the Cowboys defense that allow the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs should be a great opportunity for Lewis to produce; the Cowboys have also surrendered the (tied for) third-most receptions to opposing backs.

 A couple of names that I am selling after four weeks; Bears wide reciever Alshon Jeffery (questionable today and not expected to play) and and Broncos running back CJ Anderson (just not producing).

You probably used a high pick to select Jeffery, so you don't want to give him away, but it's time to move on. Jeffery was a disappointment last season and without a top receiving threat opposite him (when he returns) you are probably not going to get back what you invested; it's time to move-on and get what you can.

Anderson is a little different. Again owners probably bought high on him and again, you need to get some return. Right now back-up running back Ronnie Hillman clearly looks like the better back and better fit for the Broncos offense. Anderson is not going to reside on the bench, he's still figure in the mix, but how long can you hang on with performances of 29, 27, 18, and 43 yards rushing? He is still relevant, so you should be able to get some return on him, but move him now before his value bottoms out.

Some plays I will be leaning on this week, start;

Justin Forsett vs the Browns D
Alfred Morris vs the Falcons D
Kendall Wright vs the Bills D
Jordan Matthew vs the Saints D

And yes I am playing Anthony Dixon versus the Titans with no Karlos Williams or LeSean McCoy.

Just my take for week 5.

~David G

SUNDAY'S FANTASY FAVES

October 3rd, 2015
Saturday

Week 4: Sunday's Fantasy Faves

After watching that scintillating performance on Monday night by the Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers how can you not like the Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton at home this week against the Chiefs secondary. Now we must temper our expectations a bit, since Andy is no Aaron, but with a full compliment of weapons and as well as the Red Rifle has been tossing the pigskin this season (8 passing touchdowns, 866 yards passing); he's a Sunday favorite.

This Sunday will be a good road test for the Raiders young quarterback Derek Carr, although some may not consider the Bears secondary (ranked 5th most points allowed versus opposing QB) a huge test. Anytime you have to travel across the country back east and play an early game, on the road, in front of a hostile crowd, in the windy city, you will be tested. Fortunately for the 2nd year QB, he'll be bringing some nice weapons with him. With 5 passing touchdowns and 726 yards passing Carr is among the league leaders and facing the Bears who have allowed 8 passing touchdowns (2nd most) this season he's looking to enrich his stats for 2015. Carr is definitely a Sunday favorite.

Looking at some of the backfields on Sunday, I am enamored with running back Karlos Williams of the Bills. He's been a beast for fantasy owners scoring on all three Sundays thus far and tomorrow could be four against the Giants run defense (ranked 10th most fantasy points allowed versus RB). With starter LeSean McCoy sidelined (ruled OUT for Sunday), Williams should see plenty of work. The Giants have been decent agains the run, but Williams with 186 yards rushing this season is averaging more than 7 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns; he's my Sunday favorite.

A second ball carrier I like is the Super Charger running back Melvin Gordon. The kid runs hard and does not shy away from contact. He will get a crack at the Browns run defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Gordon has yet to really get the ground game going in San Diego averaging just over 63 yards per game and 4.3 yards per tote, but the Browns are giving up more than 150 yards per game (and better than 5 yards a carry). Gordon has yet to crack the end zone this season, but all could change tomorrow. He's another Sunday favorite.

A couple of other names I like tomorrow because of the matchup and trends; the Packers rookie receiver Ty Montgomery could get plenty of looks tomorrow against a shaky Niners secondary with wideout Davante Adams out. The Bills young quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been strong through three weeks and will face the leagues secondary that has allowed the most passing yards. Let's not forget Carr's newest favorite target and Raiders rookie, wide receiver Amari Cooper; the kid has been on fire with 15 receptions and 243 receiving yards with a score the past two weeks. And one more for the road, how about the Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones. Quietly Jones has grabbed 7 passes for 142 yards and two scores the past two Sundays and tomorrow he gets the Chiefs secondary (9 touchdowns allowed to opposing receivers).

These are some of my favorites.

That's my take.

~David G

WEEK 3 FANTASY PICKS

September 27th, 2015
Sunday morning

Week 3 Fantasy picks

When is comes to fantasy football, there is no crystal ball to check or scientific formula to follow, although some of us may disagree. But what there is that you can count on weekly are your own eyes and football instinct. Neither of these may be enough for you to win, but they are sure a lot of fun to work with.

Having both of those tools at my disposal, I give you week 3 favorites for Sunday. Now mind you, these are not the regular fantasy studs you drafted in the early rounds (the no-brainer starts), here I am trying to dig a little deeper to find the diamonds in the rough, those low cost value plays needed for success on the highly popular DFS sites.

In the backfield, I am rolling out Raiders running back Latavius Murray (36 touches in two games). Murray should see plenty of work today against a Browns defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including better than 5 yards a pop on the ground. And for a little sexy PPR appeal, Murray has snagged 10 targets for 10 receptions thus far this season.

Out wide I am looking at the Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Every Sunday Baldwin is heavily involved in the pass and at a low salary, he's a low risk play on DFS sites. In two games this season Baldwin has seen 17 targets, snagging 14. Now his production is not what we'd like to see with this much activity, but today I like his chances of doing more against a Bears secondary that has already allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

Under center, I have a couple of quarterbacks I will be leaning on; Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor. Tannehill is a safe play this week and has a good matchup at home against the Bills secondary that ranks 3rd highest in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Taylor faces a tough road test against the Dolphins today, but he's been exceptional (from a fantasy perspective) in his two starts this season and ranks 6th among quarterbacks (standard scoring). His five total touchdowns this season rank tied for third among quarterbacks; he should be good for one in the air and one on the ground today.

Lastly, the quarterbacks safety blanket (tight end) that I am eye-balling on DFS sites today is Greg Olsen. A likely start for most owners that drafted him and today one that should pay off. After a slow start in week one (3 targets, one catch), Olsen turned things around a bit in week 2 catching 6 of 14 passes thrown his direction.He's still without a score this season, but facing a depleted Saints defense that ranks 13th worst versus opposing tight ends he should see plenty of action again this week and could finally find paydirt. In his last meeting against the Saints back in 2014, Olsen hauled ins 10 of 11 passes for 72 yards and a score; could we see a similar performance today? Time to check those crystal balls.

That's my take for Sunday, week 3.

~David G

FANTASY FOOTBALL RULE NUMBER....

September 26th, 2015
Saturday

Fantasy Football Rule Number...

When in doubt, Thursday's Out. 

No, this is not my rule, but it happens to be one that I am strongly endorsing. It's always a tough start in any fantasy format playing on a short week, so unless you are starting those typical fantasy studs that are locked into your weekly lineup, you are safer staying away from those Thursday night matchups.

First of all, no one wants to go into the weekend with a couple of fantasy duds already locked into your lineup. It's just too much time to languish in the misery of second guessing and wishful thinking.

Where's the evidence? I don't know if there are any hard numbers to support the coined phrase, but just looking at this past Thursday's matchup is enough to convince me.

Even an elite receiver like the Giants Odell Beckham Jr provided little to excite the average fantasy owner. Now he did have a nice night with 7 receptions for 79 yards and a score, but considering where he was drafted and his current salary on the DFS sites, that bar is a little too low.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed also turned in a nice effort with 6 catches for 96 yards, but the lack of a score hurts those owners in leagues where touchdowns are heavy (especially the DFS sites). And if you were like me believing the hype around the Redskins rookie running back Matt Jones, his 38 yards rushing with a fumble and zero catches were costly in those lineups you played him in. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon, with DeSean Jackson out was a disappointing 5 catches for 64 yards and no score.

The best plays of the night were the Giants quarterback Eli Manning with 2 touchdown passes, 279 yards passing, and no turnovers, and wide recevier Rueben Randle with 7 receptions, 116 yards receivng, and a score.

When breaking it down, you had a division rivalry, so the teams are very familiar with one another. Playing on a short week it's tough to expect a traveling team to play big. You have an 0-2 Giants team, that could easily be 2-0, playing at home; you have to expect a better effort. It just reads as a risky play to count on much offensive output from the road team.

I think next time, if there's any dobut, Thursday's out.

That's my take.

~David G

WEEK 2 FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS

September 20th 2015
Sunday

Sunday Rankings

After watching some replays of a few of the week 1 matchups (but I also watched quite a few games on Sunday), I came up with my short list of favorite plays for week 2.

These are a lists of favorite for Sunday, not in any order of ranking, just the fact I like their matchup on Sunday;

Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (just the best in the game)
Carson Palmer (the former Trojan looks like he's got plenty left)
Drew Brees (a bounce back week for Brees at home)
Andrew Luck
Ben Roethlisberger (Niners D could force Big Ben to sling-it all day)
Sam Bradford
Matt Ryan (might not be a big passing day in yards, but 2-3 scores works)
Tom Brady
Colin Kaepernick (love his matchup agains the woeful Steelers D)
Tony Romo (could be forced to play catch-up today)

Running backs
Carlos Hyde (the kid looked strong in week 1, love his matchup today)
Adrian Peterson (he gets more than 20 touches today)
Doug Martin (should get it going today, 120-130 total yards today)
Bishop Sankey (playing the numbers, favorable matchup today)
Justin Forsett
Mark Ingram (involved in ground attack and pass game)
Darren Sproles (gets enough touches to be a strong flex)
Dion Lewis (even with Blount back, will see a lot of the field)
Marshawn Lynch (Packers D will get a huge load of Beast mode tonite)
Matt Forte (have to love his heavy workload)

Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews (the number one in Philly)
Antonio Brown (consistency, consistency, consistency)
Keenan Allen
Brandon Coleman (can you say 7 targets in week 1, sleeper)
Odell Beckham Jr
Julio Jones (hard to keep a stud receiver out of the end-zone)
Larry Fitzgerald (a reliable target for Palmer, should find end-zone today)
Jermaine Kearse (busy week 1, could be heavily targeted in week 2)
John Brown (could follow up week 1 score with another trip today)
Pierre Garcon (this is a reach, but I like his matchup and no D-Jax)

Tight ends
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Eifert (12 targets in week 1)
Vernon Davis
Jordan Reed (when he's healthy, he can play)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (good matchup versus Saints today)
Heath Miller
Dwayne Allen (will have a good chance to score Monday night)
Jimmy Graham (still a top-10 play every week)
Ladarius Green (No Gates, another productive Sunday)
Martellus Bennett (will see a slew of targets today)

Now names omitted doen't mean poor performances today, only that the above names are my favorites for today.

That's my take for Week 2

~David G

SUNDAY SLEEPERS

September 13th, 2015
Sunday

Sunday Sleepers

I am not going to go through too many, so I will offer just a couple of Sleepers to consider for week 1.

In Green Bay with Nelson out (ACL injury) and James Jones only having been with the team for less than a week, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be looking to utilize his full compliment of weapons this week. Running back Eddie Lacy will likely carry the load on the ground, but when the team enters the red-zone, I am expecting Rodgers to really open things up. One weapon that is not getting a lot of noteriety is tight end Richard Rogers. In his second season, the former Cal Bear is a big target at 6'4" and will face a Bears defense that was worst versus tight ends last season (standard scoring), allowing the second most touchdowns. I expect the Rodgers connection at least once today.

Another Sunday Sleeper I am targeting is wide receiver Rueben Randle. Over-shadowed by his teammate Odell Beckham Jr, Randle brings something to the table and has had success with quarterback Eli Manning in the past. With Victor Cruz ruled out, Manning is going to have to look other places beside OBJ in the pass game. Randle finished strong last season with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and should be a lock for a couple of red-zone targets at 6'3".

Rodgers and Randle could be very successful plays in week 1.

Just my take.

~David G

SUNDAY STARTERS: WEEK 1

September 13th, 2015
Sunday









Sunday Starters: Week 1

If you drafted well this past preseason and managed to avoid the injury bug, your lineup should be well set; play your studs. But for those of us already dealing with adversity and looking for Sunday Value, there are a handfull of plays I like that are worth noting.

This being the first weekend of NFL action, value will be key for many of us trying to come out on top in our weekly matchups. And for those of you (like me) who play the weekly games, Sunday value can be paramount.

Looking across the board, there are couple of low-value (in drafts and DFS pricing) wide receivers worth slotting in today; in Green Bay Davante Adams. Even with the return of James Jones, Adams value should remain in tact as the teams best deep threat. And if you recall, last season wide receiver Jordy Nelson averaged 15.5 yards per catch and had 19 receptions of 20 yards or more (inlcuding 8 for 40 yards or more); Adams will be filling Nelson's spot on Sunday.

Another wide receiver I like is the Falcons Leonard Hankerson. Listening to some sports talk, sounds like Roddy White is good to go for Monday, but none-the-less the Falcons run a lot of 3-receiver sets and Hankerson should see plenty of field; enough to find the end-zone.

A quiet running back this week (at least a player not getting a lot of hype or much love) is the Jets Chris Ivory. With no real other threat in the backfield to steal carries, Ivory should get plenty of run against a defense that faced the third most carries last season and allowed the second most rushing yards.

With all the injuries in Washington, as the dust settled the lone survivor at tight end was Jordan Reed. The Redskins tight end has plenty of talent and upside and if he can remain healthy, he'll be a nice weekly play for fantasy owners. Although his matchup is not considered favorable (Dolphins defend tight ends well), Reed in the slot has very good athletiscm and will benefit from wide recievers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside. This could be a reach, but I like Reed to snag a few balls and reach the end-zone today.

Lastly, a tight end that should be in most lineups today is the Bears Martellus Bennett. As pointed out by ESPN's Mark Schlereth, the Bears new offense (under new head coach John Fox) is a carry-over of the Broncos from last season (tight ends were targeted 96 times in 2014). Bennett is also coming off a career high 90 reception season; so he's got great rapport with his quarterback Jay Cutler. In the new offense look for Cutler to lean on his trusty tight end today.

This is just my take for Week 1.

~David G

THURSDAY'S FANTASY TAKEWAY

September 12, 2015
Saturday

Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway

Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.

A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).

Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise. 

On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.

While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.

The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.

Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;

Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)

This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.

~David G

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

September 6th 2015
Sunday

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.

And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.

The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.

For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a  quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.

The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.

This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.

~David G

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

September 4th, 2015
Friday

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.

Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.

My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.

With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.

Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!

After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.

With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain. 

Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL). 

In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.

My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.

~David G

MURRAY AND MCCOY: NEW PLACES, SAME FACES?

August 28th 2015

Friday

Murray and McCoy: New Places, Same Faces?

I mentioned yesterday some of the running backs I would be targeting in my upcoming PPR draft and while these two (DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy) obvious targets were not mentioned, they are not being overlooked.

McCoy and Murray may be in new places for the 2015 season, but I still very much think these two dynamic runners are the same ball-carriers from a year ago. That being said, while the talent may still exist their situations set up for very likely different outcomes from a year ago.

Murray (450 touches in 2014) is not likely to see as heavy a load as he did in Dallas last season with the likes of Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles sharing the same sideline. History is also against him to repeat his 2014 performance. I think Murray will perform well in Philly and should have a good season, but I am not expecing him to finish 2015 as the number two fantasy stud; top 10 is more in line. With his current value in drafts (that I am seeing) making him a late first or early second round pick, his price may be too high for me to reach.

McCoy would seem to have greater appeal (to me), in a situation where he is a lock to be the workhorse. But the Bills questionable line and questionable offense, together with McCoy's recent injury status may make him appear to be a bit of a risky early pick. Regardless, I still like McCoy to also finish in the top 10 this season. Once he returns to the field, he could easily post his third consecutive 300-plus carry season, and surpass his 5 rushing touchdowns of a year ago.

Both these cats can scat with the best and have shown in the past the ability to perform at the highest of levels, but when stacking up the two head-to-head this season, based on what they bring to the table and where they'll be setting up their plates, my money is on Shady.

That's just my take.

~David G

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G