FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting (Week 1)

Start or Sit

Charles Clay (start) The Bills tight end has a nice matchup against a Jets secondary that ranked 9th worst against opposing tight ends last season and allowed 10 touchdowns. He’s a low TE1 this week.

Kendall Wright (start) The Bears wide out will likely fill a familiar role in the offense this season and goes up against a Falcons secondary that ranked 10th worst against opposing receivers and allowed the 6th most receptions. He’s a nice flex this week.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The Bengals appear to have a bit of a convoluted backfield this season and add that they face a Ravens defense that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and I am inclined to stay away.

Martavis Bryant (start) The Steelers wide receiver could have a juicy match up this week playing alongside with Antonio Brown. Add the Browns secondary allowed 20 touchdowns to opposing receivers last season and Bryant is favorite flex this week.

John Brown (start) The Cardinals wide receiver has been working hard to get healthy and back to form and in the team’s third preseason game he showed what he’s capable of when healthy with two scores. Sunday he’ll take on a Lions secondary that allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers and 20 receiving touchdowns in 2016. Brown is another favorite for a flex play this week.

Leonard Fournette (sit) The Jags passing offense really struggled in the preseason which makes me believe the rookie runner is going to see a lot of 8 and 9 man in the box this season. Fournette will also be facing a Texans defense that returns JJ Watt and allowed the 11 fewest rushing yards a season ago. It’s going to be a long day for Fournette on Sunday.

Marshawn Lynch (sit) A lot of folks are excited about the return of Beast Mode, but fantasy owners may want to temper their expectations this Sunday. Lynch and Raiders will face a Titans defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. You may have to start him because of where he was drafted, but if you have options you may want to consider.

Terrelle Pryor (start) The Redskins newest big target has a tasty matchup on Sunday facing an Eagles secondary that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In the matchup I start Pryor and believe he’s got a great shot to score.

Sammy Watkins (sit) The Rams newest receiver may have a difficult time finding the end zone on Sunday. The Rams offense sputtered through the preseason and even with a Colts secondary missing cornerback Vontae Davis, the Rams are likely to run the ball a lot. Watkins could be tough sit on Sunday, but if you have to play him, it could be a long day.

Tyler Lockett (start) The Seahawks travel to Green Bay and like the recent heat wave in Southern California, Lockett could get hot on Sunday against a secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Lockett is not likely to see a large volume of targets, but he could get loose on a long one which is why I like him as a flex start.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out has looked sharp this preseason and should be peppered with bunch of targets on Sunday. He’ll face a Niners secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a mid WR2 start for me.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Cowboys were very good against the run a year ago allowing the second fewest yards rushing and the 4th fewest fantasy points. Perkins is going to have a tough time running against the Boys on Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 9th 2017

Saturday Late Afternoon Edition

My Week 1 Four Horsemen + A Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So here we go with another season of boldly predicting the weekly outcome of a handful of fantasy players each week. The normal count has always been a fabulous four or Four Horsemen, but this year I am adding a flex play. So these are my bold predictions for Week 1.

Quarterback

We have all heard the talk regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s Jekyll and Hyde play on the road and at home. The big difference with this Sunday road contest is Big Ben will finally have all his toys available; wide receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, and a healthy running back Le’Veon Bell to start the season. His last start at Cleveland (last season) was a bit underwhelming, but in two of his last three starts Big Ben has passed for over 300 yards (in each) and tossed six touchdowns. There’s just too much fire-power on the Steelers offense this season and they are facing a defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Big Ben will turn in a stat line of 22 of 29 passing for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns with a pick.

Running Back

My ball carrier for Sunday is the Jets Bilal Powell. Yes, this is not a sexy pick, but Powell is in line to see the lion’s share of carries in the Jets backfield and he adds the pass-catching dimension; 58 receptions last season. Powell will face a Bills defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs (standard scoring) in 2016 including 18 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). Powell should get plenty of opportunity tomorrow and post RB1 numbers; 90 rushing yards, (5 catches) 45 receiving yards, and two scores.

Wide Receiver

The Redskins have made a lot of changes in the offseason, but one mainstay is wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season the Redskins wide receiver started 9 games and finished with 67 receptions for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. This Sunday he’ll match up with an Eagles secondary that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (standard scoring) including the 3rd most receiving yards. I particularly like Crowder in PPR formats this week as I see him getting a lot of work in the slot; his stat line for Sunday, 8 catches for 105 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Tight End

In the same matchup (Redskins & Eagles), a strong play I am hyping this week is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz is a solid TE1 this season finishing with 78 receptions just a year ago. This week he’ll line up against a Redskins defense that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016, including the 3rd most receiving yards. In their last matchup last season, Ertz caught 10 passes on 13 targets for 112 yards. I am looking for a similar result on Sunday; 8 receptions, 75 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

Flex

The Ravens have announced that Joe Flacco is not on the injury report, which means he’ll start on Sunday. I have to believe his safety blanket will be running back Danny Woodhead, a PPR darling in the fantasy world. The Ravens will want Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly, so you know he will be relying heavily on Woodhead. The new Ravens running back missed much of the 2016 season, but back in 2015 he was the No.3 fantasy back in PPR with 80 receptions, 1,091 total yards, and 9 total touchdowns. Woodhead will draw the Bengals on Sunday and their defense that allowed 5th most receptions to opposing running backs. Woodhead will be a strong flex on Sunday with a stat line of 35 yards rushing, 6 catches for 55 yards receiving, and one score.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

It’s time to talk about the big boy receivers, affectionately known as the tight ends. Now normally I might have included the Chiefs Travis Kelce, but we all got a good look at him Thursday; tremendous size and its apparent head coach Andy Reid is going to get him the ball. Kelce could be another Gronk this season. Now here are few names of players that are not like Gronk, but will have fantasy impact.

Fantasy Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph

There’s little conversation going on about Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, at least I am not hearing much, but there should be talk. Last season with first year in Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford, Rudolph turned in a stat line of 83-840-7. I have to be honest, that was the quietest stat line I remember from last season and it was good enough for the No.3 fantasy tight end. The Vikings biggest problem last season was their O-line and lack of running game; two things they addressed in the offseason. Any improvements in these areas will likely reflect with improvement in the pass game and Rudolph’s numbers. He may not have been drafted top five at his position in your draft, but there’s a good chance he finishes there.

Hunter Henry

Yes, the Chargers still have the future Hall-of-fame tight end Antonio Gates, but no doubt tight end Hunter Henry is a name on the rise. In his rookie campaign he started 10 games for the Chargers and finished as the league’s No.11 fantasy tight end (standard leagues). His 2016 numbers were touchdown dependent, but this season he should carve out a larger role in the offense and greatly improve on his 19th ranking in PPR last season. He’s a starting TE1 in 12-team leagues (bottom half) for me this season.

Jack Doyle

With the prospect of quarterback Andrew Luck throwing passes to him again this season, I believe Doyle can pick up right where he left off in 2016. A season ago Doyle finished as the No.13 fantasy tight end (PPR) with 59 receptions, 584 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. Doyle is probably going to be slow out of the gate with Luck sidelined the first couple of weeks, but he could be a strong sneaky play in the second half of the season. He’s got great fantasy value coming late off the draft boards.

Julius Thomas

After two productive seasons in Denver, the Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas has not been very fantasy relevant since; last season in standard leagues he was the 29th ranked fantasy tight end. Thomas arrived in Miami this offseason, enter head coach Adam Gase (Thomas’ old OC in Denver) and new quarterback Jay Cutler. Thomas is a big body tight end the team believes could finish with double figure touchdowns; add the Gase-Cutler factor. In 2015 when these two (Cutler & Gaes) were paired in Chicago, Cutler targeted his tight ends 127 times, for 88 receptions, and 8 touchdowns. Thomas is a sleeper tight end this season, with potential huge upside if he stays healthy!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

As I have already mentioned before, I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this pre-season and by this time that number has doubled. And through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’m still making plenty of mental notes (and of course several now on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 24 hours from kick-off, I am sharing even more of my thoughts and two cents (and yes I can make change of a nickel).

Fantasy Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

It seems a lot of the discussion at the top of fantasy drafts centers around running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell; with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension looming he’s falling in drafts. Even LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon get some ink, but the Falcons Devonta Freeman gets little press. Freeman has only finished 6th and 1st in fantasy (PPR) scoring for running backs the past two seasons. The Falcons return 21 of 22 starters this season; I think Freeman easily duplicates what he’s already done. Fantasy owners won’t go wrong taking him as a Top-5 fantasy back this season.

Todd Gurley

This kid is just too good to be held back, no matter how bad his offense plays. Last season the Rams offense was bad, but despite running back Todd Gurley finished as the No.15 fantasy RB in PPR. I don’t expect great improvements from the Rams, but under new first year head coach Sean McVay, I’m sure he can find more ways to utilize Gurley and get more productivity. I like Gurley to bounce back from last season and crack the Top-10 in 2017.

Ameer Abdullah

I am actually excited to see a healthy Abdullah back this season; missed 14 games last season to injury. The Lions didn’t spend a 2nd round pick in 2015 on running back Ameer Abdullah for nothing. He’s not going to be a bell-cow this season, but at 5’9” and 203 pounds Abdullah is a quick, strong, and versatile back that will see plenty of action in the passing game as well as the ground game. I don’t think it’s out of reach to see him finish around 220 touches (carries + catches) this season giving him a good chance at finishing well inside the Top-20 fantasy Running Backs. He’s being drafted well outside the Top-20 now making him a nice value at his current 5.06 ADP (according to FFC).

Doug Martin

Who is my favorite Martin or my favorite running back in Tampa Bay? Either way I’ll take running back Doug Martin when I can get him. Suspended for the first three games this season, I am finding little trouble taking him as my 3rd or 4th running back off the boards in the 5th to 7th rounds in some drafts. He’s worked hard in the offseason and has looked good in the preseason. I’m expecting a big year for Martin in 2017; it will just get started a little later. His current ADP of 5.01 (according to FFC) is in line, but I’m saying if you have to ability to take him any later he’ll be well worth the pick.

Robert Kelley

The Redskins starting running back Robert Kelley seems to be the quiet man in Washington with all of the Samaje Perine talk. I’m sure the rookie is good and he’ll be good, but have we forgotten all about Kelley? The 2nd year former undrafted free agent rookie out of Tulane won the starting gig just a year ago and finished as the No.26 fantasy running back (in standard leagues) last season. He also didn’t start until mid-season and from weeks 8 on thru 17 he was the No. 14 fantasy running back in PPR (according to Fantasy Pros). You’re probably not going to break the bank with Kelley, but he has value. He’s looked fine in preseason and should give fantasy owners decent production, especially as the No.27 running back going off the boards (an RB3 in 12-Team PPR leagues) according to FFC.

Jamaal Charles

Now I am probably going to take a lot of heat for this one, which is okay. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong, and sometimes you whiff. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles enters the 2017 campaign expected to backup running back CJ Anderson. I maintain here, that Charles is hands down the more talented back and has enough in his tank to win the job outright. Now’s he’s no young stud and can no longer carry the 20-25 touch workload, but if he can see 15-18 touches consistently this season and hold up, I believe he’s got a real shot at RB2 production. He ran well in his one cameo and even better looked great in pass protection. I am all-in this season with Charles in charge.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up the Wide Receivers

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September 5th 2017

Tuesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this preseason and through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’ve managed to make a lot of mental notes (as well as a few on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 48 hours from kick-off, I thought I’d share several of my thoughts or two cents (or any denomination you care to leave in my ball cap perch in front of me).

Fantasy Quarterbacks

Derek Carr

I like the Raiders quarterback Derek Carr this season. He’s got the weapons (Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook) to throw to, the team has added “Beast Mode” (Marshawn Lynch) to bolster the run game, if Lynch can hold up and shake the rust. Last season Carr was playing well enough to warrant MVP conversation; with all the pieces he has this season there is no reason to believe he can’t work some magic again in 2017. He’s a QB1 (going off the boards around the 7th round according to FFC) with MVP upside.

Carson Wentz

Another young arm with my vote of confidence this season is Carson Wentz. The kid showed a lot of composure out of the gate last season and now with a full-season under his belt, full slate of OTAs, I think he’s ready to move up the fantasy tree. The team has brought in some veteran receiver help with the additions of Alshon Jeffery (a big target) and Torrey Smith and he still has his trusty tight end Zach Ertz (78 receptions in 2016). Wentz is not being drafted as a starter, but he is definitely a nice streaming option for the bye weeks, Superflex plays, and DFS players (playing the matchups).

Ben Roethlisberger

The Steelers quarterback Big Ben get’s one of his special toys back this season with the return of wide receiver Martavis Bryant, add a healthy Le’Veon Bell available for week 1 and Whoa! Roethlisberger is a QB1, but where is his ceiling? His health is going to be an issue, but if his line can keep him upright with the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, that include wide receiver Antonio Brown Big Ben has a chance for a monster season. His 9th round ADP (according to FFC) is some nice value for those that like to wait on the quarterback pick.

Carson Palmer

A lot of folks are down this season on the Cardinals signal caller, but I am not one. Yes Carson Palmer is entering his 15th season and yes last year looked like he was playing in his 16th season, but as bad as he looked his still passed for over 4,200 yards and tossed 26 touchdowns (a big regression from 2015). But I offer you, the insertion of (a healthy we hope) wide receiver John Brown is going to make a big difference and add the crutch of running back David Johnson. The Cards have a much underrated offense this season, one that has potential for big weeks. Palmer is going off the boards very late (as the No.19 fantasy QB), but is another nice streaming option and late round add as your QB back-up (if you choose to carry two quarterbacks).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy Running backs

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September 11th 2017

Monday Night Edition

On the Cover this Week

Mr. 5000 (Fantasy Gold)

The Saints Drew Brees is like the Golden Goose in fantasy football when it comes to quarterbacks. Every year he just produces to fantasy owners delight. Over the past 11 seasons Brees has finished no worse than the No.6 fantasy quarterback, including two number one finishes.

Brees leads one of the league’s premiere offenses, ranked as the top passing offense in the league two years in a row. This season, even with the loss of wide receiver Brandin Cooks, the Saints passing game remains healthy as Brees will have lots of weapons to throw to once again.

Brees has posted staggering passing numbers throughout his career. He is only one of four quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season and he’s done it five times. He has actually passed for more than 5,000 yards in four of his last six campaigns, including over 4,800 yards in all six.

Since 2010 (7 straight seasons), the Saints quarterback has completed no fewer than 422 passes in each season, averaging 448 completions per season over that span; that’s a lot of targets to go around. Brees also threw 37 touchdowns in 2016, it was the 9th straight season he has thrown 30 or more touchdowns in a season.

Let’s face it, Brees is Fantasy Gold!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

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September 4th 2017

Monday afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

It’s the holiday and a great day to play fantasy football or at least draft a team and if you are like me, that’s just what you might be doing? And speaking of drafting, if that’s the case, here are a couple of more Studs and Duds to consider;

Studs (target these players)

If I am looking at an a wide receiver with an early pick, there are several that I like, but a big favorite for me this season has to be the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs 4th year wide receiver was the No. 3 fantasy receiver in 2016 (PPR format), No.1 in standard leagues. Evans has been a top flight receiver since his arrival in 2014 and last season he arrived; 96 receptions, 1,321 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has finished inside the Top-15 (PPR) twice in his three seasons and looks to be a lock to finish in the Top-5 this season. He and his quarterback Jameis Winston enjoy great chemistry and enter their third season together. I believe this season Evans takes the next step in fantasy and joins the elite.

An interesting signing in Philly this offseason has me looking at wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The former Bear will be a big target over the middle in the passing game and for young quarterback Carson Wentz, Jeffery will be an ideal red-zone threat. Jeffery looked good in the team’s third preseason game catching a couple of passes, including a score and if that’s any indication of what fantasy owners can expect, drafting Alshon early should pay dividends. Jeffery is currently going off the board around the No. 18 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to FFC); I like him here, would even consider taking him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor.

Duds (drafting too high)

It seems one of the hottest fantasy stocks in current drafts is the Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. I’ve heard a lot of the noise too, Andy Reid likes his guys, but remember Hunt did not win this job (not to say he’s not deserving or capable), but he is the starter now by default with running back Spencer Ware going down for the season. Hunt may in fact play very well for the Chiefs this season, but I think that’s really a little too early to call. The Chiefs still have running backs Charcandrick West and (resigned) CJ Spiller who may compete for touches. Hunt is currently going off the boards as the No. 10 fantasy back (in PPR formats according to FFC), but that’s just a little too rich and high expectation for my blood with proven runners like Todd Gurley (heavy volume), Isaiah Crowell (volume), Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde (all Top-20 last season) still on the board.

Now this may be the most controversial thus far this season for me, but I’ve seen the Jaguars passing offense and I am just wondering how rookie running back Leonard Fournette is going to find any room to run. The big back out of LSU is expected to see plenty of opportunity this season, but could be slow out of the gate dealing with a foot injury. He’s also expected to anchor the running game for a bad offense (ranked 23rd last season) that struggled on the ground (ranked 22nd in 2016). Fournette will add improvement, but the Jags also have a few other backs that could carve out small roles in the offense. For his rookie campaign, I can see Fournette finishing in the 20-24 fantasy running back range, but not at his current ADP of 3.03, the No.13 fantasy running back off the board (in PPR). He’ll fare better in standard, but he’s one player I will relax on and look to take a round or two later (if available).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

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September 3rd 2017

Sunday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

The holiday weekend is almost to a close, but there is still plenty of fantasy football to cover, fantasy drafts to be had, and fantasy players to discuss. Always the questions to be asked once you drafted a player or your team; Did I find good value? Is there too much risk? Is this player a stud? Did I take him too early?

Well here are a few players that I’ll offer my answer on;

Studs (target these guys)

Call me a believer and call him Matty Ice, but I like the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this season once again. Some folks may think his epic and career performance last season is more of an anomaly than the norm, but I see it as a trend. Ryan posted career numbers in passing touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9), and QB rating (117.13). Since 2012 he has passed for over 4,500 yards every season, his completion percentage has remained steady above 65 percent. Last year was a big year with a high touchdown volume and few turnovers (7 interceptions), so coming back with virtually all of the same pieces in place on offense, I expect similar results. He’s the number four quarterback going off the boards, where he belongs.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is one of those risks and rewards picks this year. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as the best at his position, putting up fantasy numbers that rival the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. Last season from weeks 1 to 5 and then again from weeks 8 to 12, Reed was the No. 3 scoring fantasy tight end in the NFL. During these two spans the Redskins tight end totaled 81 targets, 59 receptions, 630 yards receiving, and 5 scores; extrapolated over 16 games that’s a line of 105-1120-9. If Reed is healthy this season, his upside is Gronk-like. Even with the risk, he’s worth the take around his mid-5th round ADP (according to FFC) and any later than that he’s a great value.

Duds (drafting too early)

To again clarify, my definition of Dud is not a bust, but rather just under performing their current draft position. When I talk about the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, the word bust is not a part of the conversation. Mariota has been steady since his arrival finishing the 2016 campaign as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback. This season the Titan’s signal caller has a few new toys; the addition of veteran wide receiver Eric Decker and rookie receiver Corey Davis. The thing fantasy owners need to remember, last season the Titans were 4th in the NFL with 476 rushing attempts, 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game, and threw the 5th fewest passes. This season the Titans may throw a little more, but their primary weapon is their run game. What I expect to see from Mariota is a lot of efficiency, not necessarily greater volume. On the other hand I see several other passers such as Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball considerably more. Mariota is a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues, but his total numbers may leave him closer to his No.13 finish from last season, rather than his No.7 fantasy quarterback going off the board.

Another quarterback that I view in similar light to Mariota is the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Again, it’s not so much what he does or doesn’t do, but it’s where he lands compared to other quarterbacks going off the board right after him. Wilson is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback ahead of Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Andrew Luck. I have him as my No.12 fantasy quarterback this season, following a No.10 finish in 2016. Last year Wilson needed 546 passes, 63 more than his career high to post his number 10 finish; this is not something I expect to see him repeat. He’ll be efficient and could be easily be Top10 (with better numbers this season), but I think other quarterbacks (the ones mentioned) are more likely to have the opportunity to post Top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega