September 9th 2017
Saturday Late Afternoon Edition
My Week 1 Four Horsemen + A Flex
(Bold Predictions)
So here we go with another season of
boldly predicting the weekly outcome of a handful of fantasy players each week.
The normal count has always been a fabulous four or Four Horsemen, but this
year I am adding a flex play. So these are my bold predictions for Week 1.
Quarterback
We have all heard the talk regarding Ben
Roethlisberger’s Jekyll and Hyde play on the road and at home. The big
difference with this Sunday road contest is Big Ben will finally have all his
toys available; wide receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, and a healthy
running back Le’Veon Bell to start the season. His last start at Cleveland
(last season) was a bit underwhelming, but in two of his last three starts Big
Ben has passed for over 300 yards (in each) and tossed six touchdowns. There’s
just too much fire-power on the Steelers offense this season and they are
facing a defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Big Ben will turn in a stat line of 22 of 29 passing for 339 yards and 3
touchdowns with a pick.
Running Back
My ball carrier for Sunday is the Jets
Bilal Powell. Yes, this is not a sexy pick, but Powell is in line to see the
lion’s share of carries in the Jets backfield and he adds the pass-catching
dimension; 58 receptions last season. Powell will face a Bills defense that
allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs (standard
scoring) in 2016 including 18 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). Powell
should get plenty of opportunity tomorrow and post RB1 numbers; 90 rushing
yards, (5 catches) 45 receiving yards, and two scores.
Wide Receiver
The Redskins have made a lot of changes in
the offseason, but one mainstay is wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season
the Redskins wide receiver started 9 games and finished with 67 receptions for
847 yards and 7 touchdowns. This Sunday he’ll match up with an Eagles secondary
that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (standard
scoring) including the 3rd most receiving yards. I particularly like Crowder in
PPR formats this week as I see him getting a lot of work in the slot; his stat
line for Sunday, 8 catches for 105 yards receiving and a touchdown.
Tight End
In the same matchup (Redskins &
Eagles), a strong play I am hyping this week is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz.
Ertz is a solid TE1 this season finishing with 78 receptions just a year
ago. This week he’ll line up against a Redskins defense that allowed the 2nd
most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016, including the 3rd most
receiving yards. In their last matchup last season, Ertz caught 10 passes on 13
targets for 112 yards. I am looking for a similar result on Sunday; 8
receptions, 75 yards receiving, and a touchdown.
Flex
The Ravens have announced that Joe Flacco
is not on the injury report, which means he’ll start on Sunday. I have to
believe his safety blanket will be running back Danny Woodhead, a PPR darling
in the fantasy world. The Ravens will want Flacco to get the ball out of his
hands quickly, so you know he will be relying heavily on Woodhead. The new
Ravens running back missed much of the 2016 season, but back in 2015 he was the
No.3 fantasy back in PPR with 80 receptions, 1,091 total yards, and 9 total
touchdowns. Woodhead will draw the Bengals on Sunday and their defense that
allowed 5th most receptions to opposing running backs. Woodhead will be a
strong flex on Sunday with a stat line of 35 yards rushing, 6 catches for 55
yards receiving, and one score.
That’s My Take.
~David Ortega
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