Wednesday, September 27, 2023

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 27th, 2023
David’s Daily Digest
Wednesday Evening Edition





The Wednesday Watercooler


Targets Equal Opportunities

Your fantasy players can’t produce without the ball and they need opportunities to produce. Week 3 was a big week for production, lots of yards totaled and points tallied, and undoubtedly a lot of the production was reflected in the opportunity that was there.

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 leaders in targets and touches.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 3
Top 10 WR
1. Davante Adams (20)
2. Keenan Allen (20)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (15)
4. Adam Thielen (14)
5. AJ Brown (14)
6. Justin Jefferson (13)
7. Deebo Samuel (12)
8. Stefon Diggs (12)
9. Jakobi Meyers (12)
10. Joshua Downs (12)
11. Romeo Doubs (12)

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, currently fantasy WR26 for the season, turned his 15 targets (most this season) in week 3, into 12 receptions for 141 receiving yards. By far this was his best output of the season and good enough for fantasy WR6. If this trend continues (26.4% target share), fantasy owners will start to reap the rewards from the draft capital they invested in Chase.

It’s really no surprise to see Adams (fantasy WR4) sitting near the top of the fantasy receiver tree. His 37 targets for the season ranks 4th, his 322 yards receiving ranks 5th, and his 25 receptions are tied for 4th. As long as he and Jimmy G (Garoppolo) can continue to connect at a high level (39.3% target share) Adams will remain a Top-5 fantasy WR.

Top 10 TE
1. Sam LaPorta (11)
2. TJ Hockenson (11)
3. George Kittle (9)
4. Kyle Pitts (9)
5. Evan Engram (8)
6. Travis Kelce (8)
7. Luke Musgrave (8)
8. Jonnu Smith (8)
9. Four players tied with (7)

The Vikings TJ Hockenson, also the No.1 fantasy tight end continues to be a Target Hog in the passing game. Hockenson is getting a 20.3% target share per game which is equating to 9.3 targets per. With that kind of volume it should not be surprising to see him at the top of the fantasy tight end tree. His 11 targets in week 3 were good enough to produce 8 receptions for 78 yards. With his current volume he’s Top-5 the rest of the way.

The Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been trending in the right direction the past two weeks. With his 16 targets in that span, he has accumulated 13 receptions for 124 yards receiving, numbers good enough for fantasy TE4. For the year, he has 21 total targets which have him sitting as the No.3 fantasy tight end, behind LaPorta and Hockenson. This type of workload (18.6% target share) will keep him well inside the Top-10 fantasy tight end conversation.

Top 10 RB
1. Miles Sanders (10)
2. Raheem Mostert (7)
3. Kyren Williams (7)
4. Alexander Mattison (7)
5. Bijan Robinson (6)
6. Christian McCaffrey (5)
7. Travis Etienne Jr (5)
8. Josh Jacobs (5)
9. Antonio Gibson (5)
10. Six tied with (4)

Not only has the Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert been healthy this season, but he has been producing at an elite level. After three games Mostert is the top fantasy running back. He’s not only getting it done on the ground, but he’s contributing in the passing game with 10 receptions, 79 yards receiving, and a touchdown. His 17 touches per game, if this continues, will keep him in the RB-1 conversation.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running back’s success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 3
Top 10 RB
1. Zack Moss (32)
2. Tony Pollard (26)
3. Alexander Mattison (25)
4. Christian McCaffrey (23)
5. Travis Etienne Jr (23)
6. De’Von Achane (22)
7. Kenneth Walker III (21)
8. Josh Jacobs (20)
9. Rhamondre Stevenson (20)
10. Joe Mixon (20)

How good has the Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker been this season, he’s the fantasy RB7 through the first three games. Over the past two weeks, he’s been even better, totaling 140 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving, and four rushing touchdowns good enough for fantasy RB3. His 39 touches over the same span ranks tied for 5th. 

The Colts running back Zack Moss may only be renting the starting gig in Indy, but he’s looking like a permanent squatter at the moment. Over the past two weeks Moss has been the fantasy RB5 (tied with Jerome Ford). He has totaled 210 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving with 54 total touches (ranks 2nd). As long as the workload continues he’s a must-start, beyond week 4 we’ll have to see what happens with running back Jonathan Taylor.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega


No comments: