Thursday, October 5, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017
Thursday Afternoon Edition





Thursday's Twitter Takes




Last week kind of an easy pick with Green Bay handling the Bears fairly easily; actually took the Packers in my survivor. Although the Pack won it was costly losing Montgomery (ribs) and Adams (concussion). Of course Rodgers was on point, but with a full quota of receivers (Nelson, Cobb, and Adams), there wasn't enough looks for Geronimo Allison to go around (whiff). Bennett did his usual cameo, but for maybe a few more yards while Montgomery's shortened evening hurt owners. Not much to speak about when it comes to the Bears. Jordan Howard (Thunder) salvaged his night with a late score. Tarik Cohen (Lightning) flickered some, and even Kendall Wright ended up being playable.

Well that was last week, so let's talk about tonight's contest;

"Mike Evans should have a big night on Thurs night against the No.32 ranked pass defense. He's definitely a Week 5 stud!" @FantsySprtsHome

The Patriots are surrending north of 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in just three games. Another concerning factor is the high percentage (69.7) of completions the secondary is allowing. There's little doubt Winston and company will test the corners and attack them with his big target Mike Evans. It's hard to imagine Evans not getting into the endzone tonight at least once.

"You can expect Tom Brady to be busy tonight playing keep up or catch up. Even on the road he'll be a Top-3 fantasy QB this week" @FantsySprtsHome

And while the Pat's defense is lacking against the pass, the Buccaneers are not far behind. Only the Patriots allow more yards passing per game, but a big factor to watch is the lack of pressure. The Bucs have only sacked opposing quarterbacks once in three games; yes once! If Brady is given time, he's like a mad scientist and will completely dissect the defense. Expect the mad doctor to go operating tonight, especially since the run game is lacking.

"Doug Martin returns to action tonight, but don't discount Jacq Rodgers. He'll still have plenty of flex appeal tonight!" @FantsySprtsHome

While the Patriots are bad against the pass, they are not much better against the run, ranked 26th. A notable stat, the Patriots also allow 5.1 yards per carry. I'm sure we're going to see Martin sprinkled into this one, but I would be surprised if Rodgers didn't log at least 12-15 carries tonight, and haul in a couple of passes.

"After seeing what Watson was able to do against this defense, Winston owners have to be salivating; Top-10 fantasy QB this week!"

Two weeks ago the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson had a terrific game against the Patriots, passing for 300 yards and tossing two scores. Tonight the 3rd year Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters his matchup against the same Patriots defense with some pretty good weapons of his own. If experience counts for anything, we just may see Winston a very mobile and capable QB in his own right take his game to the next level; fantasy owners get your popcorn ready.

"Gotta love Patriots RB-James White tonight in a game where Brady is likely to throw as many as 50 passes!" @FantsySprtsHome

If numbers mean anything, the Patriots defense is going to have a rough go at it trying to slow down and stop the Buccaneers offense. That being the case, it just may be up to quarterback Tom Brady to keep his team in this one throughout and hopefully close the game on a late drive. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Brady and company will likely have to rely on his arm. Through 4 games the running game (ranked 20th in the league) has not been there averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Brady, the No.1 fantasy QB this season, through 4 games is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game; tonight he's got a great chance at surpassing his average with ease.

"DJax has been quiet much of the early part of this season, but tonight could be his breakout game!" @FantsySprtsHome

Currently DeSean Jackson is ranked outside the Top-50 wide receivers with just 9 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. His long this season is just 32 yards; not exactly what you would expect from a burner like DJax. The Patriots secondary is going to have to account for Evans all night, giving Jackson opportunity. Jackson will also have the good fortune of attacking a secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards (3rd most in the league), including 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more (tied for 2nd most).

Those are My Takes!

~David Ortega



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