September 30th 2017
Saturday afternoon Edition
My Week 4 Four Horsemen + a Flex
(Bold
Predictions: By the Numbers)
Time to check out our report card for last
week and I have to tell you, it feels like getting a test back that you already
know you didn’t do well. So let’s take a look. At quarterback we tanked with
our Rivers picked. Apparently the Chargers move from San Diego to Los Angeles
didn’t change a whole lot of things; three picks, no touchdowns
Who would’ve thought the Saints defense
would show up in week 3 and on the road nonetheless. Running back Jonathan
Stewart was basically held in check limited to just 61 total yards. Our
receiver DeAndre Hopkins was busy last Sunday with 7 catches, but finishing as
the No.30 fantasy WR (PPR) is not good enough. Tight end Jared Cook wasn’t far
off the mark with 43 yards and score, finishing as the No.8 fantasy TE (PPR) last
week. Running back Lamar Miller, our flex fared no better than Stewart,
finishing with just 63 total yards. And for good measure the Steelers defense
ranked 13th in fantasy last week.
Overall
Grade D-
There’s no question it was a rough week,
but maybe we can bounce back in a big way in Week 4;
Quarterback
It’s not been a good season thus far for
picks, but I’m a gambler and I’ll play every time. This week I am riding with
the rookie arm of Deshaun Watson. Ever since his debut as the starter in week 2
on Thursday night, I’ve been impressed. He had Mike Vick moves then and last
week showed some grit standing toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots. He’s
still a rookie and going to make mistakes, but I love his upside when you add
in his running skills and Bill O’Brien’s play-calling. This week he’ll have
more success against the Titans; 20 0f 30
passing, 185 yards passing, 1 TD pass, 1 Int, 45 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD.
Running
Back
If I have any real bold picks here, this
one will be the boldest of the bunch. This will be Buccaneers running back
Jacquizz Rodgers last dance in the spotlight (start Doug Martin returns next
week) and after a less than dismal week 3 finishing with just 15 yards rushing
on 5 carries he’s going to be looking to bounce back in a big way. Last week
was not a good week in general for the entire offense, but fortunately for
Rodgers and company the Giants roll into town. Through 3 weeks, the G-men have
not been good against the run. Let’s look at the numbers; ranked last against
the run, allow 4.5 yards per carry, and allow 10th most fantasy points to
opposing runners. The Bucs have enough weapons to keep the G-men from stacking
the box; 75 rushing yards, 25 receiving
yards and a score.
Wide
Receiver
Bold, maybe not, but playing the numbers
yes. Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry was heavily targeted back in week two
(15 targets) and followed that performance with 11 more last Sunday. His busy
Sundays have yet to produce a lot of yards, 19 receptions for just 126 yards.
So I am just playing the numbers on this one, Landry is getting opportunities
and his week 4 matchup looks like a good one against the Saints (ranked 31st
against the pass). It will be another busy Sunday for Landry; 8 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.
Tight
End
I’m not going to mince words here with my
week 4 tight end pick. What’s the saying, hard to keep a big man down or
something like that? At 6’5” Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is nearly larger
than life and after a hugely disappointing week 3 (just one catch), he’s
bouncing back this week. You can count on Andy Reid making sure of that. It’s a
great matchup against a Redskins defense that struggles against opposing tight
ends; 7 catches, 75 yards receiving, a
touchdown.
Flex
Over the past two weeks the Redskins
rising star ball carrier Chris Thompson has been on a roll. I am a believer in
the third time’s a charm. Thompson is electric in space, has great hands, and I
believe Jay Gruden will game play to get the rock to him on Monday night. He’s
my flex this week; 35 rushing yards, 6
catches, 55 receiving yards, and a score.
Defense:
And once again we are playing a team defense this week, since we love DFS. This
week I am streaming the Jaguars defense. I am not expecting a repeat of last
week’s domination, especially since entering this matchup, the Jets offense is
coming off a good showing. The Jets are home this Sunday, so I’d expect them to
keep some of that momentum this week. I am playing the numbers here and just
like the Jags defense (the No.3 overall defense, number one in sacks-13, 2nd in
turnover differential) too much to think McCown and company will be able to
generate a lot of yards and points.
That’s My Take.
~David Ortega
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