September 12th 2017
Tuesday Afternoon Edition
My Week 1 Recap
(Week One Fallout)
When was the last time you remember Alex
Smith (4), Trevor Siemian (2), and Sam Bradford (3) all having more touchdown
passes than Aaron Rodgers (1), Drew Brees (1), and Tom Brady (0)? What is going
on?
It’s been a crazy start to the 2017 NFL
season and fantasy owners are probably scratching their heads right now trying
to figure out what’s happening. Like a B movie horror thriller, there may be a
lot of mystery to begin, but by the end of the story we’ll have this all
figured out. In other words, don’t panic and don’t over react.
We are only one week into the fantasy
season, so there are no streaks, trends, or law of averages to follow. All we
have are one week of numbers, previous knowledge, and the good ole eye test. So
what have we learned after one week.
#1.
In 2017, after one week, rookies rule the
backfield.
This may actually be the case. When you
take a look at Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars), and Dalvin
Cook (Vikings), one common thread for all three, they dominate the touches in
the backfield; all touched the ball 20-plus times. As long as these kids
continue to see this volume, fantasy owners can bank on production.
#2.
In general offenses are rusty. Almost half
of the teams in week one gained less than 300 yards, this will change as the
season progresses.
Teams like the Patriots, Chargers,
Seahawks, Redskins, Panthers, and the Steelers all fell well below the 300
yards plateau after averaging well over that number a season ago. Fantasy don’t
panic with your players that underperformed, we’ve got a full season ahead and
they’ll all bounce back.
#3.
It wasn’t all sexy, but as expected studs
like McCoy, Elliott, Howard, and Gordon were productive in week one.
These are the bell-cows and they did not
disappoint with plenty of workload in the run and pass game in week one. As the
offenses continue to shake the rust, these guys are going to put up bigger
numbers with each week that passes.
#4.
Gillislee scores three times, but (fantasy
owners) let’s not depend on luck every week.
The writing was in the tea leaves heading
into the regular season, many folks figured that Gillislee would assume the old
LeGarrette Blount role. Gillislee did see the goal line work per usual, but
what were the chances he would be set up nicely as he was with the pass
interference calls that Brandin Cooks was able to draw? Gillislee at his high
price, looks like he could end up being touchdown dependent. Those calls may
continue to come, but I like Cooks chances of actually completing the play and
scoring more.
#5.
Notable performances that should hold your
attention; the play of Quarterback Sam Bradford, wide receiver Adam Thielen,
wide receiver Randall Cobb, running back Jonathan Stewart, and running back
Terrance West.
Yes, I am buying into Bradford for two
reasons. First, when his line allows him the time, he can make the downfield
throws as was the case on Monday Night. Second, did you see his weapons; his
receivers (Diggs & Thielen), his back (Cook), and his tight end (Rudolph)?
Thielen came on in the 2nd half of last season with a couple of big games and
has shot out of the gate like a gang-buster. Based on where I was seeing Cobb
drafted, he may not have been started by many owners and maybe he should be.
Both Stewart and West were drafted likely as back-ups, but given their current
situation it’s feasible to believe they are going to see a steady diet week-in
and week-out; fantasy owners should take notice.
Week one is in the books and That’s My
Take.
~David Ortega
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