Tuesday, August 29, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th 2017
Tuesday Night Late Edition





Fantasy Watch List



Well the third week (or technically the 4th week if you count the Hall of fame game) of the preseason, also known as the dress-rehearsal has completed and what have we learned? Plenty!

There was a lot to see and plenty of notes to take, so let’s get started.

The Niners have a new head coach this season, former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and many believe his presence could have a lot of influence on his new quarterback Brian Hoyer (aka Billy Ho). Hoyer is a carry-over from Cleveland when Shanahan was the OC there back in 2014; Hoyer started 13 games. Last season before going down in week 7, Hoyer had passed for over 300 yards in 4 straight games. Hoyer also scored double digits in four straight starts (week 3 thru 6) and had more than 18 fantasy points in three straight weeks (weeks 3 thru 5). Hoyer is not a big name, nor does he have a big arm, but he’s in a familiar system and a capable arm that you should be able to stream throughout the season.

One of the reasons I like Billy Ho in Frisco, he’ll be throwing to wide receiver Pierre Garcon who is also familiar with Shanahan’s system. Garcon is expected to be the Niners number one receiver this year and back in 2013 under OC Shanahan when the two were together in Washington he posted career numbers in receptions (113) and yards receiving (1,346 yards); he also had a league high 182 targets. Garcon is a little older now, but could be much wiser and a very nice value with a current ADP of 8.06 (the 37th WR going off the board). Garcon could have high level WR2 value and he’s being drafted as a borderline WR3/WR4.

The Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is going even later around the 11th round; he’s going off the board as the 48th fantasy receiver. Thielen has worked himself into a starting role in Minnesota and last season finished as the No. 29 fantasy receiver, so he is going way too late. Last season Thielen has a huge week 16 performance scoring over 44 fantasy points, a big reason why he finished in the top 30. But even without the huge game in week 16, in weeks 5 thru 14 last season Thielen was the league’s No. 26 fantasy receiver. He’s great value going as late as he is.

Some of the big news coming out of this past weekend was injuries and the fantasy implications. The Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman on Saturday (we’re hoping Edelman a speedy recovery) and his absence will surely open up opportunities for others in the passing game this season. Last season Edelman finished with 159 targets, so it is natural to expect many of those to go somewhere this season. Two beneficiaries we’d expect to see are wide receivers Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. Sure there will be  a carry over to the running backs (James White could absorb the majority of those), but the Patriots aerial attack has an aggressive look this season with so many weapons, players like Hogan and Amendola will surely now get a lot more usage than they would have. Their value won’t likely spike enough for consideration in re-draft leagues (their best fit is undoubtedly Best Ball Drafts), but you should be able to stream them throughout the season; just look for the favorable matchups.

These are just a few of the fantasy players I’ll be watching this season.

That’s My Take


~David Ortega



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