Saturday, January 29, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 29th, 2011 Saturday
The Saturday Fantasy Report
Countdown to Super Sunday (Feb 6th)


The Big Arm: Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger
Super Sunday promises to be a fantastic matchup of two of the games’ young gunslingers that are sure to put on a spectacle of a show. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers who has finally stepped out of the shadow of legendary icon and is ready to write his own name into NFL history. Rodgers has been one of the leagues’ best passers over the past two seasons with 8,356 yards passing, 58 touchdowns, and 24 wins (including playoffs).

The Steelers have a pretty good quarterback in Big Ben; 3,200 yards passing, 17 touchdowns, and 11 wins (including playoffs) this season. Roethlisberger has enjoyed tremendous success in the post season (10-2 record) and this year has been no different, although he has struggled some throwing the ball. With the Packers up next in the big dance, Big Ben will undoubtedly be watching a lot of film from last year’s matchup when he passed for more than 500 yards against these same Packers.

Like his counterpart, Rodgers also enjoyed tremendous success a year ago; passing for over 380 yards with four touchdowns (3 pass, 1 run). Both quarterbacks are capable of delivering the big play, but the difference this time around could come down to the opposing secondary. The Steelers (ranked 12th against the pass) corners have been pretty good this season, but they will be facing a lot of four and five receiver sets that could cause them lots of problems downfield. The Packers ranked 2nd in the league with 47 sacks this season and know very well how Big Ben likes to go downfield, his tendency to hold to ball could create more opportunity for the Sack Pack to do damage.
(My Pick; Aaron Rodgers is the better fantasy play)

The Playmaker: Greg Jennings or Mike Wallace
Both Jennings and Wallace are specialists at what they do; both were 1,200 yard receivers and each led his club in touchdown receptions (Jennings 12, Wallace 10). Both defenses will struggle on Super Sunday to deny either the ball; Wallace has great speed and Jennings is an exceptional runner as well.

Jennings has 16 receptions and over 200 yards receiving in his last two games and last year against the Steelers he torched their secondary for 118 yards with a touchdown. Like Jennings, Wallace was an impact player in the previous meeting a year ago with two catches for 79 yards, including a 60 yard bomb for six. The big difference in this matchup on Super Bowl Sunday, the Steelers also had wide receiver Santonio Holmes in the lineup last year; without Holmes, Wallace figures to be the big play draw downfield.

Both defenses will hold their own on Feb 6th, but these two stud receivers are just too good to be kept down. With quarterbacks like Rodgers and Big Ben throwing the pill, you can be sure these two are going to get their share.
(My Pick; A draw, play both)

The Ground Game: James Starks or Rashard Mendenhall
The Packers have enjoyed some success with the ground game during the playoffs with rookie running back James Starks, but their luck could run out on Super Sunday against the vaunted Steel Curtain. Starks was finally able to reach the end zone in the NFC Championship, but against the Steelers (only five rushing touchdowns in 2010) he likely won’t have the same good fortune.

Running back Rashard Mendenhall has been a workhorse for the Steelers in the playoffs with 47 carries for 167 yards rushing. He’s not likely to run loose on the big stage, but he should get plenty of touches to do some damage; in particular in the red-zone. The Packers defense has allowed three rushing touchdowns in the playoffs and while the Steelers will likely have some success moving the ball in the air, you can expect them to pound the ball with Mendenhall when they get close.
(My Pick; Rashard Mendenhall is a much better fantasy play)

The Party Wreckers: The Sack Pack or the Steel Curtain
Both defenses mirror one another in many ways; the Steelers lead the league with 48 sacks, the Packers were second with 47. The Steel Curtain allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns during the regular season with five (tied with Ravens), while the Packers allowed just six. Both clubs were very similar against the pass with the Packers allowing just 16 touchdowns with 24 picks, and the Steelers defense allowing 15 touchdowns with 21 interceptions.

With monumental task facing both defensive squads the big difference for both will come down to how they attack the pass and how their foes respond. The Packers are going to throw the ball and one advantage Rodgers has is his ability to get rid of the ball in a hurry. The Packers defense appears to be set up for the bigger game of the two facing Roethlisberger. Big Ben’s tendency to buy time and make plays will in the end come back to snub him. Big Ben is too good to not make a few plays, but as many as he makes will only compel him to hold the ball longer and try to make plays.
(My Pick; Packers defense will come up with more big plays)

Just my take

By David Ortega

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