Saturday, January 8, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 8th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report
Wild-Card Saturday


Bush Will Need a Big Game
….the Saints will be minus running backs Pierre Thomas (injured reserve) and Chris Ivory (injured reserve) throughout the playoffs, so it now becomes the Reggie Bush show. Bush had one of his productive games in the team’s finale against the Buccaneers, but he’ll need to elevate his game in the post season if the Saints are to go deep. Bush still has plenty of explosion and speed and can also be a versatile weapon utilized in the passing game; he caught 34 passes in eight games this season.

With their depleted backfield entering the post season Bush figures to see an increased role and become more of a featured back in the Saints offense. He’ll get plenty of work today against the Seahawks 21st ranked run defense. Bush averaged just 4.2 yards per carry this season, but in the season finale he ran for 70 yards on just 9 carries. He’ll need that kind of running today against Seattle and he should get plenty of touches to do it.

The Seahawks have struggled this season with the ground game surrendering 16 runs of 20 yards or more, so look for Bush to break at least one big one today.
(My thoughts; 18 carries, 110 yards, 5 receptions, 25 yards, two touchdowns)

Williams Could Play Big Against Saints
….the Seahawks don’t have the firepower offensively to match the Saints offense, but what they do have you can bet they will use. The team recently signed wide receiver Mike Williams to a three year extension acknowledging they believe the kid is talented and can play; his 65 receptions also say the same.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck believes this too and will be looking for his big target all afternoon against a very tough secondary. The Saints have not done well with takeaways in the secondary this season, so you can bet Hasselbeck will be taking his shots. Williams is not a fast target, but should not have trouble finding space underneath coverage and over the middle of the field.

The Seahawks should be able to move the ball on the ground, but could struggle some in the red-zone today.
(My thoughts: 8 catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns)


It’s Manning Versus the World (Jets)
….there are not a lot of folks picking this Colts team to get very far, but I am pretty sure quarterback Peyton Manning is going to do everything he can this evening to push the Colts into the next round. It’s been no secret about Manning’s struggles and 17 interceptions this season, but while he has had his lumps, lets’ not forget the 4,700 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.

One way or another Peyton just finds a way to get it done and has done so for the past nine straight seasons. It’s not always been peas and carrots in the playoffs for the 13 year veteran, but he’s coming into the post season playing well and he has to be confident with his first round matchup. These are the same Jets he sliced apart a year ago and tonight you can bet it will be all about Manning versus Rex Ryan’s defense.

You can forget all the talk about a running game; the Jets know they have to stop Peyton and the Colts know they will live or die this evening with Peyton. This season Manning averaged 42 passes per game and will use no fewer this evening against the Jets; it will be a big night.
(My thoughts; 28 of 44 passing, 325 yards passing, three touchdowns)

Other notes…

…tight end John Carlson could get some play today against the Saints with coverage focused on the outside (Williams and Obomanu). Carlson only saw 58 targets all season (about four per game), but could be much busier today matched up with Saints linebackers.

….Marshawn Lynch should see considerable work early while the game remains close, but figures to disappear in the second half once the Saints open things up. Justin Forsett could end up seeing more work and fantasy points, especially in PPR Leagues.

…the Colts know they will have to stop the Jets run game. With Sanchez struggling under center (just one touchdown in his last five starts), the Colts defense will force the 2nd year starter to make plays; Sanchez could be in for a rough ride tonight.

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