Thursday, January 20, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY FANTASY

January 20th, 2011 Thursday
My Weekly Fantasy

Championship Week

Sunday’s Fantasy Lineup

Some quick notes about Sunday’s lineup…..

My Quarterback:

Well Sunday’s pick should be pretty simple; no quarterback has played nearly as well as the Packers Aaron Rodgers over the past month. Rodgers is on fire this post season with six touchdowns in two games and no interceptions; he is also completing 78 percent of his passes and currently owns a 134.5 passer rating. He is a no-brainer start this weekend, but if for any reason you are not able to ride the strong-arm of Rodgers, Big Ben (Roethlisberger) could be a good play.

At home on Sunday Roethlisberger will be looking to continue his own hot hand. In his last five starts Big Ben has not thrown a pick and has six touchdown passes, including two last Sunday against the Ravens. In his previous matchup against the Jets earlier this season (Week 15) Roethlisberger passed 264 yards with a touchdown; he also scrambled for another 25 yards. With the Jets tough run defense (3rd in the NFL), Big Ben will be forced to make some plays in the pass game.

My Running backs:

This happens to be a very rough week for running backs with the number one, two, and three ranked run defenses playing, but if you are looking for some production you could still see plenty. The Packers boast the number 18th ranked run defense making Bears running back Matt Forte an appealing option. Forte has been running the ball particularly well the past month and he’s also become a regular option in the pass game with 15 receptions in his last three games; he’s also averaging over 150 yards of offense.

The Jets don’t figure to run through the Steel Curtain on Sunday, as no runner was able to top the century mark this season against their formidable ground stoppers, but the shifty LT was able to squeak out 49 yards on 11 carries back in week 15. Those aren’t great numbers, but LT could figure significantly in the pass game matching up against the Steelers linebackers and Dick LeBeau’s blitz calling tendencies.

Another back worth taking a hard look at this week would be the Packers rookie James Stark. The Bears have the 2nd best run defense in the league, but they will have their hands full keeping Rodgers and the Packers passing game out of the red-zone; Starks may not see many yards, but could pick up an easy score or two.

My Wide Receivers:

This could be a huge weekend for receivers with very few yards being shed on the ground. The Packers-Bears matchup could be the game with the most fireworks with two gunslingers, Rodgers and Cutler under center. If these two can’t grind out any yards on the ground, you know neither will be shy about putting the ball in the air. Names like Jennings and Driver may call out to fantasy ears, but on Sunday I will roll the dice with a couple of lesser known names like Jordy Nelson and James Jones. The Bears are not deep in the secondary and they just won’t be able to cover everyone; it’ll be pick your poison (they will try and take away Jennings). If Cutler is forced into a shootout, he will be looking downfield a lot; wide receiver Johnny Knox could come up big with several catches over the middle.

In the Jets-Steelers matchup, both teams combined could struggle to reach 100-yards, but their secondaries could be susceptible to a number of big plays. It appears the Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards has really improved his hands this season and with his big size, he’s a safe bet to pull down a few balls on Sunday. With the Ravens really taking away Steeler’s wide receiver Mike Wallace, Big Ben found a new target that could be an effective play on Sunday as well, rookie Emmanuel Sanders (he could be risky, so consider others first).

My Tight End:

Last week to many people’s surprise the under-used Greg Olsen emerged from his hiatus with several big catches to lead the Bears passing attack; he caught three balls for 113 yards and a score. With the Packers tough corners working to take away the deep ball, Olsen could see plenty of work again down the seam early. Olsen may not tally nearly as many yards this week, but he could see a few more throws.

In the AFC contest, my favorite there is not the trusty Dustin Keller who went into hibernation most the regular season, but the Steelers Heath Miller. The Jets corners will be pre-occupied with the Wallace and Ward and Big Ben knows how to use his tight end; last week Miller caught five passes for 39 yards and a score.

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