Saturday, December 25, 2010

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY WATCH

December 25th, 2010, Saturday

Fantasy Watch

Dallas Cowboys versus Arizona Cardinals


Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz Looks Ready To Fly

The Cardinal’s wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is not having one of his typical super campaigns this season, but he is still on his way to 90 catches and well over 1,100 yards receiving this season. Even with all the changes his team has gone through at the quarterback position this season, Fitz still has 78 receptions, but only five touchdowns. Saturday’s matchup against the Cowboys 28th ranked pass defense could help change that.

Fitzgerald is still seeing plenty of balls in his directions this season (153 targets) and nothing should change this Saturday against the Cowboys secondary that has allowed 31 passing touchdowns allowed in 2010 (tied for most in league). Another concern for Dallas when trying to cover Fitz will be the yards after catch; the Cowboys have allowed 52 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. There’s no question Fitz will have plenty of chances to make some catches, but will the Cowboys be able to keep him contained and wrapped up?

Sunday’s projections against the Cowboys.
(9 receptions, 115 yards passing, two touchdowns)

Jason Witten: Sure Handed Witten Keeps Rolling

The Cowboys’ tight end Jason Witten has been a hot fantasy play for owners and a big red-zone target for the Cowboys over the past several weeks. In his last four games Witten has seen 34 passes thrown his direction and has managed to snag 32 of them. Witten has also become a touchdown magnate over the past three games, scoring in all three (four touchdowns total).

The Cardinal’s pass defense is ranked 24th in the league and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season; including five to tight ends. With Witten being a much more utilized pass receiving option, the Cards’ secondary will have their hands full.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals.
(7 catches, 90 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Jon Kitna: Kitna Keeps Up Steady Play

The Cowboys’quarterback Jon Kitna has been playing very well over his past three games throwing five touchdowns against two interceptions. Kitna is also completing over 68 percent of his passes in his past three starts and has thrown for 714 yards. With the cardinals struggling against the run this season, the Cowboys are likely to spend a lot of time on the ground, but that should set up some deep shots off the play action.

Kitna executes a very good play fake and should be able to catch a few safeties flat footed on Saturday. Kitna has thrown 13 touchdowns in eight starts this season and shouldn’t need to rely much on his arm this week against Arizona, but he’ll still take his shots. The Cards’ secondary has allowed 48 pass plays of 20 yards or more and with only 26 sacks this season; expect Kitna and his receivers to be looking for the occasional big play downfield.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals.
(20 of 30 passing, 240 yards passing, two touchdowns, 20 yards rushing)


Tashard Choice: Cowboys Running Back Could Be Choice

The Cowboys’ running Tashard Choice could be the ball carrier of choice this coming weekend against the Cardinals. In the team’s last three matchups Choice has seen his workload increase (46 touches) and he has managed to find the end-zone in three of his last four contests. Since his touches have increased Choice is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has totaled 217 yards from scrimmage in his last three games.

The Cardinal’s defense (ranked 30th) does not do a good job stopping the ground attacked allowing 145 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. This season the Cardinal’s defense has been toasted for 16 rushing touchdowns and have allowed 16 runs of 20 yards or more. In their last two games opponents have ran the ball out of the backfield 67 times and opposing runners have gain 282 yards on the ground. Expect the Cowboys to run the ball considerably Saturday night and Choice to get his share of carries.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals
(15 carries, 65 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, one touchdown)


Just my take.

By David Ortega

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